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P4: Mutually Exclusive Events

Foundation Higher AQAEdexcelOCREduqasCCEA

Enumerate sets and combinations of sets systematically; mutually exclusive events; probability sums to 1

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📋 Key Concepts

Definition: Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time. If one happens, the other cannot.

Key Terms

TermDefinitionExample
Mutually ExclusiveCannot occur togetherRolling 3 AND rolling 5 on same dice roll
ExhaustiveEvents cover all possible outcomesHeads or Tails covers all coin outcomes
P(A or B)Probability of A or B happeningP(Heads or Tails) = 1
For Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For Exhaustive Events:
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + ... = 1

📝 Identifying Mutually Exclusive Events

Test: Ask "Can both events happen at the same time?" If NO, they are mutually exclusive. If YES, they are NOT mutually exclusive.
Example 1

Are these events mutually exclusive?

a) Rolling a 3 and rolling a 5 on a dice

b) Drawing a red card and drawing a King from a deck

Solutions:

a) YES - You cannot roll 3 and 5 on one throw

b) NO - You can draw the King of Hearts or King of Diamonds

📝 Adding Probabilities

Rule: For mutually exclusive events A and B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example 2

A fair dice is rolled. Find P(rolling a 2 or a 5).

Solution:

These are mutually exclusive (can't roll both at once)

P(2) = 1/6 and P(5) = 1/6

P(2 or 5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3

Example 3

A bag contains 3 red, 4 blue and 5 green balls. Find P(red or green).

Solution:

Total balls = 3 + 4 + 5 = 12

P(red) = 3/12 and P(green) = 5/12

P(red or green) = 3/12 + 5/12 = 8/12 = 2/3

Alternative: 8 favourable balls out of 12 total = 8/12

📝 Exhaustive Events

Exhaustive: A set of events is exhaustive if they cover all possible outcomes. Their probabilities sum to 1.
Example 4

A spinner has 4 sections: Red, Blue, Yellow, Green. These events are exhaustive. Find P(Green).

P(Red) = 0.2, P(Blue) = 0.35, P(Yellow) = 0.25

Solution:

Since events are exhaustive: P(R) + P(B) + P(Y) + P(G) = 1

0.2 + 0.35 + 0.25 + P(G) = 1

0.8 + P(G) = 1

P(Green) = 0.2

📝 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

Warning: If events can happen together, use: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Example 5

In a class of 30: 18 play football, 12 play tennis, 5 play both. Find P(student plays football or tennis).

Solution:

P(Football) = 18/30 = 0.6

P(Tennis) = 12/30 = 0.4

P(Both) = 5/30 ≈ 0.167

P(Football or Tennis) = 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.167 = 0.833

Check: (18 + 12 - 5)/30 = 25/30 ≈ 0.833 ✓

📝 Sets and Combinations

Sets: Use set notation to describe events. A ∪ B means "A or B" (union). A ∩ B means "A and B" (intersection).
Example 6

For a dice: Let A = {even numbers} = {2, 4, 6} and B = {factors of 6} = {1, 2, 3, 6}

Find A ∩ B and A ∪ B

Solution:

A ∩ B = {2, 6} (numbers in both sets)

A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} (all numbers in either set)

❓ Practice Questions

Q1: A dice is rolled. Are "rolling an even number" and "rolling a 6" mutually exclusive?

Q2: A bag has 5 red, 3 blue and 2 yellow balls. Find P(red or yellow).

Q3: P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.35. If A and B are mutually exclusive, find P(A or B).

Q4: A spinner has outcomes: A, B, C, D. P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.25, P(C) = 0.2. Find P(D).

Q5: In a survey: 40 people like tea, 35 like coffee, 15 like both. Total surveyed = 60. How many like neither?

✅ Answers

  1. NO - 6 is an even number, so both can happen together
  2. P(red or yellow) = 5/10 + 2/10 = 7/10 (or count: 7 balls out of 10)
  3. P(A or B) = 0.4 + 0.35 = 0.75
  4. P(D) = 1 - (0.3 + 0.25 + 0.2) = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25
  5. Tea or Coffee = 40 + 35 - 15 = 60. So 60 - 60 = 0 like neither

🎯 Exam Tips

🧠 Problem-Solving Strategies

Problem-Solving

For mutually exclusive problems: (1) First check if events CAN happen together — if yes, they are NOT mutually exclusive, (2) For mutually exclusive events, add probabilities: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), (3) For non-mutually exclusive events, subtract the overlap: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B), (4) For exhaustive events, all probabilities must sum to 1.
Multi-Step Problem

In a class of 30: 14 play football, 12 play rugby, 6 play both. A student is chosen at random. Find P(plays football or rugby) and P(plays neither).

Solution: Football or rugby = 14 + 12 − 6 = 20 students. P(F or R) = 20/30 = 2/3. Neither = 30 − 20 = 10 students. P(neither) = 10/30 = 1/3. Check: 2/3 + 1/3 = 1 ✓

⚠️ Common Errors

Watch Out!

1. Wrong: Adding P(A) and P(B) when events are NOT mutually exclusive, getting P(A or B) > 1 Correct: If events overlap, use P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) to avoid double-counting

2. Wrong: Confusing mutually exclusive with independent — saying events can't be both Correct: Mutually exclusive means they can't happen together; independent means one doesn't affect the other. They are different concepts.

3. Wrong: Forgetting that P(A) + P(A') = 1, so P(A') = 1 − P(A) Correct: The complement rule always works — use it when "not A" is easier to find than A directly

✍️ 6-Mark Exam Question

Extended Answer

6 marks: A dice is rolled. Let A = "even number" and B = "number greater than 4". (a) Are A and B mutually exclusive? Justify your answer. (b) Find P(A), P(B), and P(A ∩ B). (c) Use the formula P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) to find P(A or B).

(a) No — 6 is both even AND greater than 4, so they can happen together.

(b) A = {2,4,6}, so P(A) = 3/6 = 1/2. B = {5,6}, so P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3. A ∩ B = {6}, so P(A ∩ B) = 1/6.

(c) P(A ∪ B) = 1/2 + 1/3 − 1/6 = 3/6 + 2/6 − 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3.

Check: A ∪ B = {2,4,5,6} → 4 out of 6 = 2/3 ✓

Mark scheme: M1 for identifying 6 in both, A1 for "not mutually exclusive" with reason, M1 for correct P(A) and P(B), A1 for P(A ∩ B) = 1/6, M1 for applying formula, A1 for final answer 2/3

📊 AO3: Reason & Interpret

Reasoning and Interpretation

A survey of 200 people found: 90 like tea, 80 like coffee, 35 like both.

(a) Are "liking tea" and "liking coffee" mutually exclusive? How do you know?

(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person likes neither drink.

(c) Josh says "Since 90 + 80 = 170, and 170 < 200, the events must be mutually exclusive." Is Josh correct? Explain.

Answers: (a) No — 35 people like both, so they can happen together. (b) Tea or coffee = 90 + 80 − 35 = 135. Neither = 200 − 135 = 65. P(neither) = 65/200 = 0.325. (c) Josh is wrong. The fact that 90 + 80 < 200 tells us there is overlap OR neither — it does NOT prove mutually exclusive. The 35 who like both prove they are NOT mutually exclusive.

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