P4: Mutually Exclusive Events
Enumerate sets and combinations of sets systematically; mutually exclusive events; probability sums to 1
Enumerate sets and combinations of sets systematically; mutually exclusive events; probability sums to 1
| Term | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Mutually Exclusive | Cannot occur together | Rolling 3 AND rolling 5 on same dice roll |
| Exhaustive | Events cover all possible outcomes | Heads or Tails covers all coin outcomes |
| P(A or B) | Probability of A or B happening | P(Heads or Tails) = 1 |
Are these events mutually exclusive?
a) Rolling a 3 and rolling a 5 on a dice
b) Drawing a red card and drawing a King from a deck
Solutions:
a) YES - You cannot roll 3 and 5 on one throw
b) NO - You can draw the King of Hearts or King of Diamonds
A fair dice is rolled. Find P(rolling a 2 or a 5).
Solution:
These are mutually exclusive (can't roll both at once)
P(2) = 1/6 and P(5) = 1/6
P(2 or 5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
A bag contains 3 red, 4 blue and 5 green balls. Find P(red or green).
Solution:
Total balls = 3 + 4 + 5 = 12
P(red) = 3/12 and P(green) = 5/12
P(red or green) = 3/12 + 5/12 = 8/12 = 2/3
Alternative: 8 favourable balls out of 12 total = 8/12
A spinner has 4 sections: Red, Blue, Yellow, Green. These events are exhaustive. Find P(Green).
P(Red) = 0.2, P(Blue) = 0.35, P(Yellow) = 0.25
Solution:
Since events are exhaustive: P(R) + P(B) + P(Y) + P(G) = 1
0.2 + 0.35 + 0.25 + P(G) = 1
0.8 + P(G) = 1
P(Green) = 0.2
In a class of 30: 18 play football, 12 play tennis, 5 play both. Find P(student plays football or tennis).
Solution:
P(Football) = 18/30 = 0.6
P(Tennis) = 12/30 = 0.4
P(Both) = 5/30 ≈ 0.167
P(Football or Tennis) = 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.167 = 0.833
Check: (18 + 12 - 5)/30 = 25/30 ≈ 0.833 ✓
For a dice: Let A = {even numbers} = {2, 4, 6} and B = {factors of 6} = {1, 2, 3, 6}
Find A ∩ B and A ∪ B
Solution:
A ∩ B = {2, 6} (numbers in both sets)
A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} (all numbers in either set)
Mutually exclusive events CANNOT both happen → P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). If they CAN overlap, subtract the overlap: P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B).
P(rain) = 0.3 and P(wind) = 0.6; they can occur together with P(both) = 0.15. Find P(rain or wind).
0.3 + 0.6 − 0.15 = 0.75
M1 for adding, M1 for subtracting the overlap, A1 for 0.75. Forgetting the subtraction double-counts the overlap.
A spinner: P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.45. A and B are mutually exclusive. Find P(neither A nor B).
P(A or B) = 0.75 → P(neither) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25
M1 for the sum, A1 for the complement. 'Neither' = 1 − P(either), building on the exclusive rule.
Exam wording to expect: "P(A or B)", "are these mutually exclusive?", Venn-diagram overlaps.
Q1: A dice is rolled. Are "rolling an even number" and "rolling a 6" mutually exclusive?
Q2: A bag has 5 red, 3 blue and 2 yellow balls. Find P(red or yellow).
Q3: P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.35. If A and B are mutually exclusive, find P(A or B).
Q4: A spinner has outcomes: A, B, C, D. P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.25, P(C) = 0.2. Find P(D).
Q5: In a survey: 40 people like tea, 35 like coffee, 15 like both. Total surveyed = 60. How many like neither?
Q6: A card is drawn from a standard deck. Are 'heart' and 'queen' mutually exclusive? Find P(heart or queen)
Q7: P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4, P(A and B) = 0.2. Find P(A or B).
Every mark comes from the working, not just the answer. These model answers show the lines a mark scheme expects to see.
Q1. No — the 6 is even, so both can happen together
Q2. 5/10 + 2/10 = 7/10 (mutually exclusive — one colour each)
Q3. 0.4 + 0.35 = 0.75
Q4. 1 − 0.75 = 0.25
Q5. 40 + 35 − 15 = 60 → 0 like neither
Q6. Not exclusive (the queen of hearts). P = 13/52 + 4/52 − 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
Q7. 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.2 = 0.7
Mutual exclusivity: 2–4 marks on Papers 1/2. The overlapping version (subtract the intersection) is the discriminator; Venn diagrams carry the reasoning.
Links to: Venn diagrams (P6), probability scale (P3), trees (P8).
Spec J560. Three papers of 100 marks each: Paper 1 non-calculator, Papers 2 and 3 calculator, at Foundation/Higher tiers. OCR marks problem-solving explicitly, and its papers tend to front-load multi-step worded contexts — practise extracting the mathematics from prose before calculating.
Always check: specification details change — confirm paper structure and set texts against the current specification for your exam year.
In a class of 30: 14 play football, 12 play rugby, 6 play both. A student is chosen at random. Find P(plays football or rugby) and P(plays neither).
Solution: Football or rugby = 14 + 12 − 6 = 20 students. P(F or R) = 20/30 = 2/3. Neither = 30 − 20 = 10 students. P(neither) = 10/30 = 1/3. Check: 2/3 + 1/3 = 1 ✓
1. Wrong: Adding P(A) and P(B) when events are NOT mutually exclusive, getting P(A or B) > 1 Correct: If events overlap, use P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) to avoid double-counting
2. Wrong: Confusing mutually exclusive with independent — saying events can't be both Correct: Mutually exclusive means they can't happen together; independent means one doesn't affect the other. They are different concepts.
3. Wrong: Forgetting that P(A) + P(A') = 1, so P(A') = 1 − P(A) Correct: The complement rule always works — use it when "not A" is easier to find than A directly
6 marks: A dice is rolled. Let A = "even number" and B = "number greater than 4". (a) Are A and B mutually exclusive? Justify your answer. (b) Find P(A), P(B), and P(A ∩ B). (c) Use the formula P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) to find P(A or B).
(a) No — 6 is both even AND greater than 4, so they can happen together.
(b) A = {2,4,6}, so P(A) = 3/6 = 1/2. B = {5,6}, so P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3. A ∩ B = {6}, so P(A ∩ B) = 1/6.
(c) P(A ∪ B) = 1/2 + 1/3 − 1/6 = 3/6 + 2/6 − 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3.
Check: A ∪ B = {2,4,5,6} → 4 out of 6 = 2/3 ✓
Mark scheme: M1 for identifying 6 in both, A1 for "not mutually exclusive" with reason, M1 for correct P(A) and P(B), A1 for P(A ∩ B) = 1/6, M1 for applying formula, A1 for final answer 2/3
A survey of 200 people found: 90 like tea, 80 like coffee, 35 like both.
(a) Are "liking tea" and "liking coffee" mutually exclusive? How do you know?
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person likes neither drink.
(c) Josh says "Since 90 + 80 = 170, and 170 < 200, the events must be mutually exclusive." Is Josh correct? Explain.
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